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Severely tornadic storm - May 29, 2004

This day had tornado outbreak written all over it. SPC covered everywhere from NE to OK in a high risk. This day was to feature big cyclogenesis with the low center in Northern KS and a deep lee trough with dryline extending a little west of south to the OK/TX border by afternoon. The midlevels showed one morning shortwave to eject out over the plains followed by a broad, weakly diffluent trough later in the day. With the expected 250mb jet to come out over OK, anywhere along the dryline looked like a target. Those that wanted to chase ahead of the low would pick Northern KS or NE, traditional dryline alley chasers would have to figure out where in 400 mi of dryline their storm would form. I chose Northern OK/KS for subtle reasons that could've failed. There was a small wave in NM that appeared on track for my target area and I wanted to get in its way. Other subtleties I noticed was the thick boundary layer moisture marked by boundary layer clouds in OK extending to the dryline by I-40. That kind of moisture looked like something I wanted to be near.

Model forecast soundings (didn't matter which) showed hodographs expanding rapidly at 00 UTC anywhere from HUT to ICT to PNC to OKC. 500mb temps were forecast to be a bit cooler near the KS border but by a degree...not much.

20040529 - 12 UTC maps

20040530 - 00 UTC maps


  Overview chase route map: