Day 1 Chase Target
Forecasting
Day 1 Chase targeting
Day 1 Chase targeting
Today’s agenda
Today’s agenda
Today’s agenda
General philosophy
A simple methodology for
convective initiation
Low-level forcing mechanisms
An example of an anafront
An example of an anafront
An example of an anafront
Nearby vertical wind profile
of an Anafront
Example of a Katafront
Example of a katafront
Example of a katafront
Example of a katafront
Example of a katafront
Example of a katafront
Example of a katafront
Low-level forcing mechanisms
The right kind of warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Example warm front
Low-level forcing mechanisms
Outflow boundary example
Outflows may be simply from
localized cloudiness
Outflows may be simply from
localized cloudiness
Outflows may be simply from
localized cloudiness
Low-level forcing mechanisms
Dryline routines
Example dryline
Example dryline
Example dryline
Example dryline
Example dryline
Why no convection?
Why no convection?
Why no convection?
Why no convection?
Deep moisture convergence
Other low-level triggers
Horizontal convective rolls
Satellite perspective of
horizontal convective rolls
Horizontal convective rolls
This puny roll/boundary
produced the May 3rd monster
A simple methodology for
convective initiation
Now to look for
destabilization mechanisms
Can shortwaves aloft
directly initiate convection?
mid-level ascending air
Example
Example of WV imagery
Example of a late arriving
SW trough
Example of a late arriving
SW trough
Synoptic Forcing Mechanisms
Synoptic forcing mechanisms
Differential thermal
advection
Low-level warm advection
Low-level moisture advection
Upslope flow
Upslope flow
Upslope flow
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Example upslope event
Destabilization from
sustained convergence
Example
Example contd
Diurnal heating
Related to diurnal
heating: Is cirrus bad for storms?
Is cirrus bad for storms?
Is cirrus bad for storms?
Is cirrus bad for storms?
Example May 31, 1999
A simple methodology for
convective initiation
Ingredients for supercells
Will I get supercells?
Will I get supercells?
Some sites have 6 km shear
as a map
Storm motion
supercell motion
Or use this SPC plot
Supercell tornado threat
Storm Relative Helicity
SRH
SRH on a hodograph
SRH contd.
This storm is creating its
own SRH
SRH issues
SRH contour on the web
Energy Helicity Index
Strong low-level buoyancy
Strong low-level buoyancy
Strong low-level buoyancy
Strong low-level buoyancy
Example of weak low-level
buoyancy
Example of strong low-level
buoyancy
Warm moist RFD
Estimating LCL heights
LCL height on the SPC
product
Storm-relative midlevel
winds
Inferring good SRH, low LCL,
high near-ground instability
The ultimate
tornado-producing boundary
The ultimate boundary
Great tornado hodographs
How to forecast HP, CL, LP
Storm-relative anvil layer
winds
Interstorm seeding
A forecast methodology
Forecast methodology contd
Forecast methodology contd
Updating your target on the
road
Some common targets
Misc target strategies
Misc target strategies
Misc target strategies
Misc target strategies
Misc target strategies
Acknowledgements
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